Kazakhstan Energy Storage Container Telecommunication Power Supply 100KWh

Global trend of tightening carbon regulation presents yet another impetus for broader modernization and systemic reforms of energy sector in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan should articulate and adopt an official Energy Security Strategy document, guided by these general observations.

Given its current trajectory, Kazakhstan may not achieve its INDC conditional emissions target by 2030; national GHG emissions may even drift upwards in early 2020s with further economic recovery and higher energy consumption; a more concerted effort is needed to reverse this.

The Kazakhstan-China Pipeline (KCP) was main non-Russian route for Kazakh oil exports in 2022. – KCP remains substantially underutilized, as it tends to yield relatively unattractive netbacks given fixed China border price at discount to an international benchmark and provides access to one market (and buyer).

Traditionally a net importer of kerosene, Kazakhstan has moved toward self-sufficiency since refinery modernization: domestic production satisfied over 85% of demand in 2022 versus less than 60% in 2016.

Kazakhstan's officially reported GHG emissions totaled 340.8 MMt CO 2e in 2021, down 7% from 367.7 MMt CO2e in 2015. To achieve Kazakhstan's INDC (unconditional) emissions target of 324.4 MMt CO 2e by 2030, this positive downward trend would have to continue and accelerate slightly; this is certainly possible if:

Achievement of Kazakh authorities' aspirational target for a several-fold increase in trans-Caspian export volumes, raising such exports to about a quarter of estimated Kazakh export volumes in a few years' time, will be constrained by high transportation costs along with infrastructureconstraints.